PRODUCTION
Crop outlook map
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Loading dated model snapshot…
Each weekly date shows a yield estimate recalculated using only data available by that date. These are modeled estimates, not daily field observations.
- Read the summary above the map.
- Red is below normal; green is above; gray is near normal or unavailable.
- Click a country → state/province → district to go deeper.
- Change the date or press Play to follow weather and crop stage.
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WorldCover shows the full 2021 land-cover palette at 60% opacity, clipped to the selected area; cropland class 40 is highlighted in the legend. ADM3 outlines are experimental and inherit parent-district crop support and estimates; they are not local crop or rainfall measurements. Field-level detail is not included.
Millet outlook
Supply, crop conditions and what to watch.
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Preparing the international outlook…
Watch next
Why this outlook? See the evidence
Key assumptions
YIELD OUTLOOK
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CROP HEALTH & PROSPECTS
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Loading evidence…
Where millet is grown
Open mapLoading country rankings…
Millet-growing areas · select a country
Source dates available Gap / not yet available · Individual areas may have no data.
Map options & sources
Current regional weather
Environmental layers cover all land, not just millet. Gold international shapes show modeled 2020 crop support; U.S./Canada retain their finer historical crop classifications. Neither identifies current planted fields.
Explore weather history, crop reports and country estimates
COMPARE THE SAME PERIOD
How does the weather compare?
Rainfall in the previous 7 days mm
What this means for the crop
Regional sourceREGIONAL CROP & YIELD ESTIMATES
What the growing regions suggest
Approximate weather-based yield estimates are available for three Indian Bajra states. Each was checked against reported state harvests from 2021–2024: 12 state-year tests, with average error of 65.9 kg/ha versus 73 kg/ha for a simple state average. This is an early, small backtest—not independent validation. If harvested area is similar, a yield change points to output in the same direction; current regional area, carryover and marketable supply are not known, so it cannot establish how much grain is available to buy. These three results do not represent global millet. Other regions keep their official country estimates separate from local weather. Satellite and soil-water layers are context only where they have not improved a tested yield model. Stage weather averages three planting-date scenarios; hot days are maximum temperatures at or above 35°C.
| Growing region | Latest 7-day rain · evidence base | 2026 yield estimate | Season stage & calendar |
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DATED CROP ASSESSMENTS
What regional reports are saying
Latest reviewed reports through 4 October 2026. Regional cereal reports are context, not millet-only field-health measurements.
Country estimates, source dates and coverage
2024–2026 estimates use the same September 2026 source vintage. These are not forecasts as they were known in each historical year. Tonnes and hectares are shown in thousands; yield is tonnes per hectare. Current trade and stock zeros in this source have unresolved coverage and are not treated as physical absence.
| Country | Production · 000 t | Previous year | Yield · t/ha | Harvested area · 000 ha |
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Sources: USDA FAS PSD · Open-Meteo / ERA5 · Crop estimate provenance · Weather provenance. 46 countries have official estimates in this import. U.S./Canada analysis remains in its detailed view; Namibia has a weather reference without a PSD estimate. Smaller producers and all subnational areas are not yet fully covered.
SEASONAL INTELLIGENCE / U.S. & CANADA
Millet crop & supply outlook
Follow crop conditions, yield estimates and what they suggest about supply.
Loading dated evidence…
U.S. millet
Preparing the evidence…
Reading dated weather, historical yields and model checks.
Key assumptions
CROP CONDITION
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Why we think this
PREVIOUS SEASONS
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Why we think this
YIELD OUTLOOK
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Why we think this
Crop, yield and supply evidence
Weather values are weighted averages over historical millet support, not field measurements. “Heat days” counts days when that average maximum exceeds 36°C; this is a screening threshold, not a measured damage threshold. Exposure stops at modeled maturity and excludes subsequent harvest weather. The map uses a separate Open-Meteo series; differences between providers are not yet reconciled.
Agronomic basis: UNL Proso Millet guide, water use and yield. Stored soil water and the timing of flowering / grain-fill rain matter; rainfall deficits cannot be converted directly into yield loss. Dated weather comparison and source hashes.
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CROP TO SUPPLY
What does this mean for supply?
What is missing to estimate supply?
02 / EXPLORE THE SEASON
Crop map
Start with the yield estimate, then inspect the weather and crop-stage evidence. Yield colors show one best estimate per state across its historical millet-support area; they do not imply field-level variation or current planted fields.
SEASON OUTLOOK
Map settings & planting assumptions
Great Plains proso reference; local planting is estimated.
USDA class 29 and AAFC class 135 define the map. Non-millet ground is left unshaded. Weather points require native millet-class verification.
Historical geography stays fixed. All calculations stop at the selected date.
BY REGION
Regional weather and yield
The website leads with its best current yield estimate from weather, crop timing, modeled soil water and past harvests. Each region explains what the evidence shows and what current-season information is missing. Current planted acres are used only to estimate total production.
| Region | Weather so far | Yield outlook | Crop timing |
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03 / COMPARE SEASONS
How does this season compare?
Rain to equivalent crop development mm
| Comparison | Rain | Heat exposure | Days from planting |
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NASA POWER daily weather; 2000–2025 reference. The chart shows matched years from 2016 onward. Only seasons reaching the selected thermal progress by September 25 enter the comparison. Assumed proso planting and historical support weights apply. Method and source provenance.
Detailed crop analysis & source evidence
CALENDAR → DELAY → PHENOLOGY
Estimated stage
Proso reference: base 50°F, cap 86°F; heading 925, flowering 1,125, maturity 1,585 °F-days. Huntsman maturity: 1,685. Proso scenarios apply to Great Plains grain and Manitoba; other species stages are withheld. Species and cultivar are assumptions.
STAGE-SENSITIVE WEATHER EXPOSURE
Stress windows
| Modeled stage | Rain | Rain − ET₀ | Heat days | Frost days |
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Heat-screen scenario: maximum >36°C / 96.8°F. The screen is not a validated proso damage threshold. Frost exposure: minimum ≤0°C / 32°F. These are weather exposures, not measured damage. Rain − reference ET is not root-zone water.
FIRST COARSE YIELD · PROSO GRAIN
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How this estimate is made
USDA historical state grain yields are matched to NASA POWER weather and root-zone soil wetness at 76 native grid cells. Crop stages, rainfall and heat are calculated locally before aggregation using dated historical crop weights. This allocation is an assumption because crop classifications also include forage and seed millet. Correlated rain, heat and GDD terms describe model drivers; their effects are not causal damage estimates. Each date and planting-delay scenario is tested using earlier years only. Development uses rolling earlier-year training and 2012–2021 checks; 2022–2025 is reported separately. These comparisons are supporting diagnostics: they do not suppress the best calculated current estimate, and they are not field observations. The experimental label identifies an estimate that meets the current comparison criteria; even then, the result is a state-scale estimate, not a field forecast.
State-scale inheritance remains an estimate. Accepted historical geography and revised historical outcomes are used. NASA modeled root-zone wetness is tested as a yield-model input. Its added predictive value is not consistent. Satellite canopy, CropCASMA anomaly and historical irrigation remain separate evidence. Actual field observations remain missing. The hindcast uses revised outcomes; an operational vintage backtest remains unresolved.
2026 CONDITION · HISTORICAL REFERENCE SUPPORT
Satellite, soil, irrigation and field evidence
CropCASMA encoded daily NDVI sampled at historical millet-support cell centres. September 5, 15 and 25 snapshots; matching dates from 2023–2025. Physical NDVI scaling and cloud QA are unresolved. Rotation, harvest and other crops can change this signal; no automatic crop-health verdict.
CO, NE and SD: daily NASA modeled wetness, 0–100 cm relative saturation; not plant-available water. Elsewhere: available dated CropCASMA anomalies. Neither is a field measurement. Sources retain their own units and dates.
USDA FSA 2023–2025 reports preserve irrigated / nonirrigated practice. Display uses the explicitly dated 2025 reported acres, not classified crop acres.
No genuine field reports were recovered. The station overlay contains weather reports and cannot substitute for field scouting.
Sources, coverage and model limits
CropCASMA vegetation-index source · SMAP root-zone anomaly source · Dated source requests, hashes, coverage and limitations · Original historical FSA rows and source editions.
Samples currently cover historical High Plains grain support and Manitoba/Saskatchewan where the source has valid data; other uses remain unavailable. Each date shows only a snapshot dated on or before it, with its actual observation and retrieval dates. Source publication times are unavailable. These are separate condition evidence streams: NASA root-zone wetness has been tested against historical USDA state outcomes; satellite and irrigation are not numerical yield inputs. The tests do not establish field-scale accuracy. The historical concentration geometry remains subject to agronomic validation.
ACREAGE RECONCILIATION · SAME SOURCE YEAR
Mapped and reported acres differ
| State | 2025 selected classified | 2025 FSA all millet* | 2025 FSA grain* |
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*Reported planted + failed acreage in represented counties. Classified acres include several species and uses; these are different denominators. Earlier detailed spatial support for other U.S. uses is unavailable, so those weights use 2025 only. Grain and Canadian weights use the three-year mean. Full dated comparisons and investigated discrepancies.
DATED ACREAGE · SEPARATE FROM FORECAST
Historical grain production
State totals apply to the full reported state, not a selected subregion. Calculated production = that year's reported harvested acres × that year's reported yield. Rounded reported yields can differ from the published production total. No 2026 acreage or production is inferred from the map.
Sources and method
U.S. counties require at least 40 reported millet acres and 40 classified acres in two of 2023–2025. Grain concentrations additionally use native crop cells from all three years. Canada uses three annual native inventories plus documented production geography.
Recurring 0.15° rotation neighborhoods anchor 0.03° crop cells with at least 2 acres and 2% occupied area. A bounded 1.5 km morphological closing preserves separated concentrations; no counties or convex hulls fill the map. Other U.S. uses have recurring county evidence but 2025 detailed spatial support. Species remain unresolved where the classifier cannot distinguish them.
Inclusion rules, source years and exclusions · Mapped versus reported acreage. Manitoba proso reported acreage exceeds classified support; intended uses, classification omission and source coverage prevent forcing the totals to match. Quebec pearl/forage evidence is separate from the Prairie reference. Isolated Canadian pixels outside corroborated regions are withheld.
UNL / CSU / SDSU / Wyoming / USDA-ARS proso guide supplies the Great Plains planting reference and cultivar GDD thresholds. Planting ±14 days and additional delays represent scenarios. Applying this model elsewhere is an explicit transfer assumption; it does not identify species or observed planting.
Open-Meteo modeled daily weather supplies map surfaces and stage exposure. In CO, NE and SD grain regions, NASA POWER supplies rain, temperature, stages and modeled soil wetness from the native 0.5° × 0.625° grid; each crop cell stays in its own source grid cell. Other North American regions retain their separately labeled Open-Meteo samples. Missing grid cells are unavailable, never filled from a different stratum. Reference ET is not supplied by this NASA package, so the affected rain-minus-ET values are unavailable; stage, rain and heat remain usable. No station observations are substituted into this modeled surface. Weather inputs are checked against downloaded native rasters. Map values use the assigned crop-support cell and remain clipped to growing regions or the native pixel mask. Fine crop shapes do not increase weather resolution.
Observed IEM station reports are a separate optional overlay with actual UTC timestamps, minimum 60% daily coverage and no imputation. Hourly reports are not daily rainfall. Station coverage and provenance.
NASA POWER supplies the same matched historical and seasonal weather for the corrected U.S. map, stage comparison and coarse-yield hindcast. Clipping does not give gridded weather field-scale accuracy.
USDA annual summaries supply dated proso grain outcomes. Historical ranges and experimental weather-based estimates are distinguished. Canada and other U.S. states retain geography and seasonal scenarios; numerical yield is withheld where local outcomes and calibration are absent. Historical classified acres are weights, not a 2026 acreage census or production total.